Fact based stock research
Green Plains (NasdaqGS:GPRE)
US3932221043
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Green Plains stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with investment alternatives), Green Plains (Oil & Gas Refining, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Green Plains are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 55, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Green Plains's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Green Plains exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 8), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 55) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining |
| Index | Low Emissions, Energy Efficient, Water Efficiency, NASDAQ |
| Size class | Large |
25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Green Plains
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 28 |
|
11 |
|
4 |
|
8 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 25 |
|
29 |
|
67 |
|
51 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 72 |
|
79 |
|
53 |
|
55 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
23 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
19 |
|
33 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with investment alternatives), Green Plains (Oil & Gas Refining, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Green Plains are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 55, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Green Plains's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Green Plains exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 8), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 51). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 55) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 28 |
|
11 |
|
4 |
|
8 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 25 |
|
29 |
|
67 |
|
51 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 72 |
|
79 |
|
53 |
|
55 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 28 |
|
21 |
|
34 |
|
27 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with alternatives), Green Plains shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Green Plains. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 70, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 70% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Green Plains's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 66% of alternatives (only 34% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 83% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Green Plains's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Green Plains could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Green Plains looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 81 |
|
69 |
|
71 |
|
70 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 10 |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
17 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 23 |
|
56 |
|
28 |
|
34 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 52 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 28 |
|
11 |
|
4 |
|
8 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Green Plains shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Green Plains. Sales Growth has a rank of 60, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 60% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 96 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 34, and Stock Returns with 11 are also below-average. Stock returns for Green Plains have recently been below 89% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for Green Plains. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with the Obermatt Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 14 |
|
30 |
|
17 |
|
60 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 7 |
|
32 |
|
83 |
|
96 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
30 |
|
84 |
|
34 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 58 |
|
69 |
|
23 |
|
11 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 25 |
|
29 |
|
67 |
|
51 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), the company Green Plains has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Green Plains is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Green Plains.Leverage is at 52, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 52% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 85, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 8, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 92% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Green Plains has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Green Plains more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 79 |
|
75 |
|
52 |
|
52 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 92 |
|
95 |
|
81 |
|
85 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 6 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
8 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 72 |
|
79 |
|
53 |
|
55 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
91 |
|
89 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
22 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
16 |
|
29 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
23 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Green Plains from April 25, 2024.
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