Fact based stock research
Tokyu (TSE:9005)
JP3574200006
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Tokyu stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Tokyu (Railroads, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Tokyu are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 19 (worse than 81% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 31, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Tokyu's financial characteristics. As the company Tokyu shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 19 (81% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 51% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 51). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Tokyu, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Japan |
| Industry | Railroads |
| Index | Nikkei 225 |
| Size class | X-Large |
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Tokyu
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 29 |
|
25 |
|
29 |
|
19 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 44 |
|
47 |
|
23 |
|
51 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 24 |
|
18 |
|
19 |
|
31 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
49 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
25 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), Tokyu (Railroads, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Tokyu are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 19 (worse than 81% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 31, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on Tokyu's financial characteristics. As the company Tokyu shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 19 (81% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 51% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 51). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Tokyu, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 29 |
|
25 |
|
29 |
|
19 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 44 |
|
47 |
|
23 |
|
51 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 24 |
|
18 |
|
19 |
|
31 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 24 |
|
20 |
|
9 |
|
15 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with alternatives), Tokyu shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Tokyu. Price-to-Sales is 47 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 53% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Tokyu's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 35, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Tokyu. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 28 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 79% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation based on Tokyu's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Tokyu? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Tokyu? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Tokyu may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 67 |
|
57 |
|
52 |
|
47 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 1 |
|
9 |
|
31 |
|
28 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 56 |
|
47 |
|
46 |
|
35 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 42 |
|
35 |
|
28 |
|
21 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 29 |
|
25 |
|
29 |
|
19 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Tokyu shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half of the indicators are below and half above average for Tokyu. Profit Growth, with a rank of 88 (better than 88% of its competitors), and Capital Growth, with a rank of 75, are both positive, which is a healthy sign for positive development. But Sales Growth has only a rank of 6, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 94% of its competitors, and Stock Returns are at a rank of 47. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Stock returns that are a thing of the past can be less of a problem. Below-average revenue growth may be caused by divestments of underperforming businesses. If that is the case, then the positive developments of profit and capital growth are signs of a company with growth potential. If these are the reasons, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 23 |
|
37 |
|
17 |
|
6 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 45 |
|
63 |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
11 |
|
18 |
|
75 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 74 |
|
77 |
|
39 |
|
47 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 44 |
|
47 |
|
23 |
|
51 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 31 (better than 31% compared with alternatives), the company Tokyu has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Tokyu is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Tokyu. Liquidity is at 58, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 58% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 11, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 89% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 20, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 80% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with alternatives), Tokyu has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 14 |
|
34 |
|
20 |
|
20 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 58 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
11 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 29 |
|
26 |
|
40 |
|
58 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 24 |
|
18 |
|
19 |
|
31 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
54 |
|
38 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
75 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
50 |
|
65 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
38 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
49 |
|
43 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Tokyu from April 18, 2024.
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