Fact based stock research
Swedbank (OM:SWED A)

SE0000242455

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Swedbank stock research in summary

swedbank.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Swedbank (Diversified Banks, Sweden) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Swedbank are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 26) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 92), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on Swedbank's financial characteristics. As the company Swedbank's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 34) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 26), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 92) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	34
Growth Rank	26
Safety Rank	92
Combined Rank	59

Country	Sweden
Industry	Diversified Banks
Index	Employee Focus EU, Diversity Europe, Renewables Users, OMX 30
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Swedbank

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	23	31	38	34
GROWTH
GROWTH	51	55	40	26
SAFETY
SAFETY	26	40	72	92
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	8	23	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	9	39	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 25-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Swedbank is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	23	31	38	34
GROWTH
GROWTH	51	55	40	26
SAFETY
SAFETY	26	40	72	92
COMBINED
COMBINED	19	28	57	59

Last update of combined financial performance: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Swedbank the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with alternatives), Swedbank shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Swedbank. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 52 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Swedbank's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 30, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 30% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 69% of alternatives (only 31% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 17% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on Swedbank's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	17	24	29	31
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	33	62	53	52
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	44	31	30	30
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	26	76	92	83
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	23	31	38	34

Last update of Value Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Swedbank; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 26 (better than 26% compared with alternatives), Swedbank shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Swedbank. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 79, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 31% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 1 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 99% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 31 and Stock Returns with a rank of 46 are also low (below 54% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 26, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Swedbank is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	28	41	28	1
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	1	38	68	31
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	95	39	79
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	46	41	50	46
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	51	55	40	26

Last update of Growth Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Swedbank.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Swedbank has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Swedbank is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Swedbank. Refinancing is at 98, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 98% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 95, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 95% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 18, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 82% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives), Swedbank has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Swedbank could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Swedbank and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	22	22	14	18
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	80	34	69	98
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	9	93	90	95
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	26	40	72	92

Last update of Safety Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Swedbank and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	32	52	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	38	36	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	31	46	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	13	13	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	8	23	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Swedbank.
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