Fact based stock research
PostNL (ENXTAM:PNL)
NL0009739416
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
PostNL stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), PostNL (Air Freight & Logistics, Netherlands) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of PostNL are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 20), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on PostNL's financial characteristics. As the company PostNL's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 72) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 20) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 72% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Netherlands |
| Industry | Air Freight & Logistics |
| Index | Dividends Europe, Employee Focus EU, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 3, SDG 8, SDG 9, Sound Pay Europe |
| Size class | X-Large |
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: PostNL
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 80 |
|
73 |
|
76 |
|
72 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 83 |
|
33 |
|
54 |
|
20 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 55 |
|
75 |
|
13 |
|
10 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
7 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
43 |
|
16 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with investment alternatives), PostNL (Air Freight & Logistics, Netherlands) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of PostNL are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 20), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation based on PostNL's financial characteristics. As the company PostNL's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 72) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 20) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 72% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 80 |
|
73 |
|
76 |
|
72 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 83 |
|
33 |
|
54 |
|
20 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 55 |
|
75 |
|
13 |
|
10 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 83 |
|
78 |
|
40 |
|
15 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with alternatives), PostNL shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for PostNL. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 87, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning PostNL's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 94, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 94% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 76% of alternatives (only 24% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 53% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on PostNL's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 86 |
|
73 |
|
89 |
|
87 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 96 |
|
72 |
|
63 |
|
47 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
16 |
|
23 |
|
24 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 88 |
|
90 |
|
92 |
|
94 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 80 |
|
73 |
|
76 |
|
72 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 20 (better than 20% compared with alternatives), PostNL shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for PostNL. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 61, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 49% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 28 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 72% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 49 and Stock Returns with a rank of 22 are also low (below 78% of alternative investments). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for PostNL is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 51 |
|
12 |
|
24 |
|
28 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 3 |
|
27 |
|
98 |
|
49 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
79 |
|
69 |
|
61 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 90 |
|
51 |
|
14 |
|
22 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 83 |
|
33 |
|
54 |
|
20 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), the company PostNL has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of PostNL is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for PostNL. Liquidity is at 59, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 59% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 12, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 88% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 13, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 87% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), PostNL has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 69 |
|
18 |
|
12 |
|
13 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 12 |
|
79 |
|
43 |
|
12 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 81 |
|
96 |
|
12 |
|
59 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 55 |
|
75 |
|
13 |
|
10 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
22 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
43 |
|
20 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
7 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for PostNL from April 18, 2024.
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