Fact based stock research
Oatly (NasdaqGS:OTLY)
US67421J1088
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Oatly stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Oatly (Packaged Foods & Meats, Sweden) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Oatly are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Oatly's financial characteristics. As the company Oatly's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 21), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
Latest Obermatt Ranks
Log in or sign up to see the new 360° View and Sentiment ranks.
360° Viewnew| Country | Sweden |
| Industry | Packaged Foods & Meats |
| Index | NASDAQ |
| Size class | Medium |
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Oatly
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
40 |
|
21 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | n/a |
|
54 |
|
54 |
|
37 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | n/a |
|
20 |
|
30 |
|
1 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
6 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
15 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Oatly (Packaged Foods & Meats, Sweden) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Oatly are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 37), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Oatly's financial characteristics. As the company Oatly's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 21), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 37), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
40 |
|
21 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | n/a |
|
54 |
|
54 |
|
37 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | n/a |
|
20 |
|
30 |
|
1 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | n/a |
|
10 |
|
26 |
|
4 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Oatly shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for Oatly. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 60, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 60% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Oatly's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 75% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 80% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Oatly to 20. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Oatly's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | n/a |
|
9 |
|
53 |
|
60 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | n/a |
|
5 |
|
75 |
|
75 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | n/a |
|
25 |
|
72 |
|
20 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
40 |
|
21 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 37 (better than 37% compared with alternatives), Oatly shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Oatly. Sales Growth has a rank of 89, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 89% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 91 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 1, and Stock Returns with 4 are also below-average. Stock returns for Oatly have recently been below 96% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for Oatly. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with the Obermatt Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | n/a |
|
100 |
|
82 |
|
89 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
91 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
14 |
|
26 |
|
1 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | n/a |
|
1 |
|
8 |
|
4 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | n/a |
|
54 |
|
54 |
|
37 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), the company Oatly has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Oatly is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Oatly. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 8 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Oatly has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Oatly because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | n/a |
|
39 |
|
93 |
|
1 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | n/a |
|
54 |
|
26 |
|
8 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | n/a |
|
4 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | n/a |
|
20 |
|
30 |
|
1 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
62 |
|
46 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
45 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
15 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
3 |
|
9 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
6 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Oatly from April 18, 2024.
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.