Fact based stock research
Novartis (SWX:NOVN)

CH0012005267

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Novartis stock research in summary

novartis.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Novartis (Pharmaceuticals, Switzerland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Novartis are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 48 (worse than 52% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 43), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Novartis's financial characteristics. As the company Novartis's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 48), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 43), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 18), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country Switzerland
Industry Pharmaceuticals
Index Dividends Europe, Diversity Europe, Moonshot Tech, SPI, SMI
Size class XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO, Insight 2016-03-25, Top 10 Stock.

20-Jun-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Novartis

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 20-Jun-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Mar-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Novartis is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Novartis (Pharmaceuticals, Switzerland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Novartis are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 48 (worse than 52% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 43), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Novartis's financial characteristics. As the company Novartis's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 48), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 43), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 18), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 20-Jun-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Novartis the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), Novartis shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Novartis. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 62 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 62% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Novartis's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 21, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 21% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 75% of alternatives (only 25% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 11% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on Novartis's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 20-Jun-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Novartis; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), Novartis shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Novartis. Capital Growth has a rank of 85, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 32% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 64 (above 64% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 18, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 32. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Novartis, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 20-Jun-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Novartis.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), the company Novartis has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Novartis is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Novartis. Liquidity is at 49, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 29, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 71% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 10 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 90% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with alternatives), Novartis has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Novartis because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 20-Jun-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Novartis and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 20-Jun-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Novartis.
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Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Novartis from June 20, 2024.

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