Fact based stock research
Mattel (NasdaqGS:MAT)
US5770811025
How to read the ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Mattel stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Mattel (Leisure Products, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mattel are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Mattel's financial characteristics. As the company Mattel's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 35), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Leisure Products |
| Index | Employee Focus US, Diversity USA, Human Rights, Recycling, SDG 11, SDG 3, SDG 4, SDG 5, NASDAQ, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Mattel
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 44 |
|
17 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 76 |
|
55 |
|
55 |
|
41 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 14 |
|
17 |
|
28 |
|
35 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
26 |
|
86 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
9 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with investment alternatives), Mattel (Leisure Products, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mattel are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 35), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Mattel's financial characteristics. As the company Mattel's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 35), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 44 |
|
17 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 76 |
|
55 |
|
55 |
|
41 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 14 |
|
17 |
|
28 |
|
35 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 29 |
|
17 |
|
18 |
|
4 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with alternatives), Mattel shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Mattel. Price-to-Sales is 26 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 74% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Mattel's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 42, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Mattel. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 44 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on Mattel's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Mattel? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Mattel? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Mattel may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 59 |
|
40 |
|
29 |
|
26 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 91 |
|
32 |
|
36 |
|
44 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 23 |
|
10 |
|
37 |
|
42 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 44 |
|
17 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), Mattel shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Mattel. Profit Growth has a rank of 52 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 52% of its competitors. The same is valid for capital growth and stock returns. Capital Growth has a rank of 55, and Stock Returns has a rank of 65 which means that the stock returns have recently been above 65% of alternative investments. Only revenue growth is low with a Sales Growth has a rank of 15 (85% of its competitors are better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The many positive growth indicators indicate a positive growth momentum with only low revenue growth. That can also be attributed to divestments or the sale of unprofitable businesses. If that is the reason, overall growth is well on track to making this stock attractive for growth investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 51 |
|
14 |
|
28 |
|
15 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 36 |
|
71 |
|
69 |
|
52 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
55 |
|
68 |
|
55 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 77 |
|
73 |
|
49 |
|
65 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 76 |
|
55 |
|
55 |
|
41 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 35 (better than 35% compared with alternatives), the company Mattel has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mattel is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Mattel and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 59, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 59% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 23, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 77% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 43, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 57% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with alternatives), Mattel has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Mattel are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Mattel and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 15 |
|
6 |
|
21 |
|
23 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 62 |
|
42 |
|
54 |
|
59 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 24 |
|
27 |
|
42 |
|
43 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 14 |
|
17 |
|
28 |
|
35 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
47 |
|
93 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
9 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
38 |
|
57 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
62 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
26 |
|
86 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Mattel from March 21, 2024.
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