Fact based stock research
Hostess Brands (NasdaqCM:TWNK)

US44109J1060

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Hostess Brands stock research in summary

hostessbrands.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Hostess Brands (Packaged Foods & Meats, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hostess Brands are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 54, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on Hostess Brands's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Hostess Brands exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 97). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 54) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country USA
Industry Packaged Foods & Meats
Index NASDAQ, S&P US Food & Beverage
Size class Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Research History: Hostess Brands

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Hostess Brands is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Hostess Brands (Packaged Foods & Meats, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hostess Brands are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 54, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on Hostess Brands's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Hostess Brands exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 97). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 54) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 16-Nov-2023. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Hostess Brands the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Hostess Brands shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Hostess Brands. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 50, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 50% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 12 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 88% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Hostess Brands's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 50 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Hostess Brands's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Hostess Brands, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 16-Nov-2023. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Hostess Brands; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2023, Hostess Brands shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Hostess Brands. Sales Growth has a value of 95, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 95% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 85 and for Capital Growth with 86. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 83, which means they have been higher than 83% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Hostess Brands exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Hostess Brands.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), the company Hostess Brands has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Hostess Brands is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Hostess Brands and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 57 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 57% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 43, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 57% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), Hostess Brands has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Hostess Brands are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Hostess Brands and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Hostess Brands and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 27-Oct-2023. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Hostess Brands.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Hostess Brands from March 21, 2024.

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