Fact based stock research
Goosehead Insurance (NasdaqGS:GSHD)
US38267D1090
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Goosehead Insurance stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Goosehead Insurance (Insurance Brokers, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Goosehead Insurance are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 77) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 62, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Goosehead Insurance's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Goosehead Insurance exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 77). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 62) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Insurance Brokers |
| Index | NASDAQ |
| Size class | Small |
18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Goosehead Insurance
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 35 |
|
15 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 82 |
|
7 |
|
100 |
|
77 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
77 |
|
60 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
11 |
|
78 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Goosehead Insurance (Insurance Brokers, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Goosehead Insurance are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 77) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 62, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Goosehead Insurance's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Goosehead Insurance exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 77). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 62) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 35 |
|
15 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 82 |
|
7 |
|
100 |
|
77 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 18 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 42 |
|
43 |
|
43 |
|
43 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Goosehead Insurance shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Goosehead Insurance. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Goosehead Insurance's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Goosehead Insurance. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Goosehead Insurance's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Goosehead Insurance? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Goosehead Insurance? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Goosehead Insurance may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 3 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 7 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 100 |
|
100 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 40 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 35 |
|
15 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Goosehead Insurance shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Goosehead Insurance. Sales Growth has a rank of 96 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 96% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 29% of competitors with a rank of 99. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 29, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 71% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 25. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 77, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 90 |
|
98 |
|
96 |
|
96 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
15 |
|
96 |
|
29 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
1 |
|
100 |
|
99 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 90 |
|
7 |
|
93 |
|
25 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 82 |
|
7 |
|
100 |
|
77 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), the company Goosehead Insurance has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Goosehead Insurance is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Goosehead Insurance. Liquidity is at 27, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 18 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 82% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), Goosehead Insurance has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Goosehead Insurance because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 53 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 31 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 10 |
|
36 |
|
22 |
|
27 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 18 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
62 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
1 |
|
57 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
36 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
100 |
|
36 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
88 |
|
91 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
77 |
|
60 |
|
new |
|
Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Goosehead Insurance from April 18, 2024.
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