Fact based stock research
Firstgroup (LSE:FGP)

GB0003452173

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Firstgroup stock research in summary

firstgroupplc.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Firstgroup (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Firstgroup are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 27, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 64). ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Firstgroup's financial characteristics. As the company Firstgroup shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 64% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 64). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 27 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Firstgroup, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country United Kingdom
Industry Trucking
Index FTSE All Shares, FTSE 250, FTSE 350, Low Emissions, Energy Efficient, Diversity Europe
Size class X-Large

This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO, Top 10 Stock.

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Firstgroup

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Firstgroup is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Firstgroup (Trucking, United Kingdom) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Firstgroup are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 27, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 64). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Firstgroup's financial characteristics. As the company Firstgroup shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (60% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 64% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 64). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 27 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Firstgroup, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Firstgroup the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with alternatives), Firstgroup shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Firstgroup. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 81, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 81% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Firstgroup's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 41, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 59% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 71% of alternatives (only 29% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 69% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Firstgroup's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Firstgroup could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Firstgroup looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Firstgroup; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), Firstgroup shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Firstgroup. Profit Growth has a rank of 83, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 83% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 94 (above 94% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 18, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 82% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 28. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 64, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Firstgroup. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Firstgroup.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), the company Firstgroup has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Firstgroup is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Firstgroup. Liquidity is at 68, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 68% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 16, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 22, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 78% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with alternatives), Firstgroup has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Firstgroup and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Firstgroup.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Firstgroup from March 21, 2024.

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