Fact based stock research
Certara (NasdaqGS:CERT)

US15687V1098

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Certara stock research in summary

certara.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Certara (Health Care Technology, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Certara are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 44) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 62), which means low debt burdens. ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on Certara's financial characteristics. As the company Certara's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 27) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 44), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 62) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country USA
Industry Health Care Technology
Index NASDAQ
Size class Small

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Research History: Certara

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Certara is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with investment alternatives), Certara (Health Care Technology, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Certara are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 44) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 62), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 34, is a hold recommendation based on Certara's financial characteristics. As the company Certara's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 27) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 44), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 62) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Certara the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with alternatives), Certara shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Certara. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 55, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 55% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 13 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 87% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Certara's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 55 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Certara's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Certara, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Certara; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 44 (better than 44% compared with alternatives), Certara shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Certara. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 95, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 17% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 42 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 58% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 17 and Stock Returns with a rank of 24 are also low (below 76% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 44, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Certara is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Certara.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), the company Certara has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Certara is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Certara. Leverage is at 55, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 55% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 55, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 60, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), Certara has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Certara but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Certara and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Certara.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Certara from March 21, 2024.

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