Fact based stock research
Canada Goose (TSX:GOOS)

CA1350861060

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Canada Goose stock research in summary

investor.canadagoose.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), Canada Goose (Apparel, Accessories, Luxury, Canada) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Canada Goose are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 5 (worse than 95% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61). ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Canada Goose's financial characteristics. As the company Canada Goose shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 5 (95% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 61% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 61). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Canada Goose, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country Canada
Industry Apparel, Accessories, Luxury
Index SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 8, SDG 9, TSX Composite
Size class Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Research History: Canada Goose

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 1-Oct-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Canada Goose is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), Canada Goose (Apparel, Accessories, Luxury, Canada) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Canada Goose are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 5 (worse than 95% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Canada Goose's financial characteristics. As the company Canada Goose shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 5 (95% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 61% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 61). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Canada Goose, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Canada Goose the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 5 (worse than 95% compared with alternatives), Canada Goose shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Canada Goose. Price-to-Sales is 35 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 65% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Canada Goose's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 20, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Canada Goose. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 30 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation based on Canada Goose's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Canada Goose? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Canada Goose? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Canada Goose may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Canada Goose; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), Canada Goose shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Canada Goose. Sales Growth has a rank of 86 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 86% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 16% of competitors with a rank of 76. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 16, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 84% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 15. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Canada Goose.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), the company Canada Goose has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Canada Goose is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Canada Goose. Liquidity is at 28, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 72% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 17, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 83% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 42 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 58% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Canada Goose has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Canada Goose because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Canada Goose and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Canada Goose.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Canada Goose from March 21, 2024.

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