Fact based stock research
Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA)

AU000000BGA8

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Bega Cheese stock research in summary

begacheese.com.au

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Bega Cheese (Packaged Foods & Meats, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Bega Cheese are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 17), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Bega Cheese's financial characteristics. As the company Bega Cheese's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 41), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 17), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	41
Growth Rank	23
Safety Rank	17
Combined Rank	6

Country	Australia
Industry	Packaged Foods & Meats
Index	ASX 200, ASX 300, Low Emissions, Energy Efficient
Size class	Large

18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Bega Cheese

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	82	51	44	41
GROWTH
GROWTH	58	93	19	23
SAFETY
SAFETY	22	31	17	17
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	37	12	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	49	6	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 18-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Bega Cheese is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	82	51	44	41
GROWTH
GROWTH	58	93	19	23
SAFETY
SAFETY	22	31	17	17
COMBINED
COMBINED	81	73	6	6

Last update of combined financial performance: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Bega Cheese the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Bega Cheese shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Bega Cheese. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 74, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 74% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Bega Cheese's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 52, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 52% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 52% of alternatives (only 48% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 95% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Bega Cheese's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	73	65	75	74
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	54	31	7	5
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	82	50	57	48
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	66	65	47	52
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	82	51	44	41

Last update of Value Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Bega Cheese; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), Bega Cheese shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Bega Cheese. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 57% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 49, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 26. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 74% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 53, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 53% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Bega Cheese, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	100	54	39	43
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	80	82	25	26
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	73	63	49
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	32	67	31	53
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	58	93	19	23

Last update of Growth Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Bega Cheese.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), the company Bega Cheese has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Bega Cheese is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Bega Cheese. Liquidity is at 13, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 87% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 40, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 60% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 33 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 67% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Bega Cheese has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Bega Cheese because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	50	48	40	40
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	46	23	25	33
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	53	51	11	13
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	22	31	17	17

Last update of Safety Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Bega Cheese and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	47	5	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	32	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	53	38	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	45	22	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	37	12	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Bega Cheese.
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