Fact based stock research
Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO)

BMG0585R1060

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Assured Guaranty stock research in summary

assuredguaranty.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with investment alternatives), Assured Guaranty (Property & Casualty Insurance, Bermuda) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Assured Guaranty are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Assured Guaranty's financial characteristics. As the company Assured Guaranty's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 23) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	23
Growth Rank	41
Safety Rank	98
Combined Rank	45

Country	Bermuda
Industry	Property & Casualty Insurance
Index
Size class	Large

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Assured Guaranty

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	43	35	25	23
GROWTH
GROWTH	58	25	31	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	9	98	98	98
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	11	25	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	3	10	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Assured Guaranty is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	43	35	25	23
GROWTH
GROWTH	58	25	31	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	9	98	98	98
COMBINED
COMBINED	31	45	45	45

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Assured Guaranty the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with alternatives), Assured Guaranty shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Assured Guaranty. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 70, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 70% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 9 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 91% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Assured Guaranty's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 70 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 78% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Assured Guaranty's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Assured Guaranty, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	11	19	3	9
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	36	21	19	17
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	94	86	69	70
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	46	28	22	22
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	43	35	25	23

Last update of Value Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Assured Guaranty; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), Assured Guaranty shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Assured Guaranty. Capital Growth has a rank of 61, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 1% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 95 (above 95% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 17, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 83% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 1. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Assured Guaranty, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	18	4	1	17
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	15	90	1
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	29	7	61
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	96	87	59	95
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	58	25	31	41

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Assured Guaranty.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Assured Guaranty has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Assured Guaranty is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Assured Guaranty. Liquidity is at 63, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 10, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 90% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 47, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 53% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Assured Guaranty has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	13	74	48	47
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	17	10	10	10
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	29	60	60	63
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	9	98	98	98

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Assured Guaranty and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	76	78	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	18	50	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	1	2	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	11	25	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Assured Guaranty.
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