Fact based stock research
Aritzia (TSX:ATZ)

CA04045U1021

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Aritzia stock research in summary

aritzia.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Aritzia (Apparel Retail, Canada) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aritzia are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 32, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 69). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation based on Aritzia's financial characteristics. As the company Aritzia shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 14 (86% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 69% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 69). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 32 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Aritzia, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	14
Growth Rank	69
Safety Rank	32
Combined Rank	20

Country	Canada
Industry	Apparel Retail
Index	TSX Composite
Size class	Large

18-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Aritzia

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	6	1	20	14
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	100	35	69
SAFETY
SAFETY	36	16	26	32
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	51	66	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	29	19	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 18-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Aritzia is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	6	1	20	14
GROWTH
GROWTH	97	100	35	69
SAFETY
SAFETY	36	16	26	32
COMBINED
COMBINED	36	25	6	20

Last update of combined financial performance: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Aritzia the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with alternatives), Aritzia shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Aritzia. Price-to-Sales is 22 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 78% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Aritzia's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 32, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Aritzia. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 35 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Aritzia's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Aritzia? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Aritzia? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Aritzia may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	6	1	23	22
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	34	3	43	35
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	6	11	40	32
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	6	1	20	14

Last update of Value Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Aritzia; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with alternatives), Aritzia shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aritzia. Sales Growth has a rank of 96 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 96% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 11% of competitors with a rank of 98. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 11, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 89% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 41. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	65	93	94	96
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	83	29	11
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	74	29	98
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	86	93	17	41
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	97	100	35	69

Last update of Growth Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Aritzia.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), the company Aritzia has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aritzia is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Aritzia. Liquidity is at 70, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 70% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 20, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 80% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 40, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 60% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), Aritzia has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	58	26	33	40
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	29	20	22	20
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	56	30	52	70
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	36	16	26	32

Last update of Safety Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Aritzia and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	88	46	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	4	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	7	42	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	92	89	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	51	66	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 18-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Aritzia.
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