Fact based stock research
Ambac (NasdaqGS:AMBC)

US0231398845

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Ambac stock research in summary

ir.ambac.com


ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Ambac (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ambac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 20 (worse than 80% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more


RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Ambac's financial characteristics. As the company Ambac's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 20), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more


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Country USA
Industry Property & Casualty Insurance
Index
Size class Small

21-Mar-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.




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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Ambac

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT
360° VIEW
360° VIEW

Most recent update of the stock research: 21-Mar-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Ambac is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Ambac (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ambac are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 20 (worse than 80% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Ambac's financial characteristics. As the company Ambac's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 20), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

RESEARCH HISTORY 2021 2022 2023 2024
VALUE
VALUE
GROWTH
GROWTH
SAFETY
SAFETY
COMBINED
COMBINED

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Ambac the better the performance.


Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with alternatives), Ambac shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Ambac. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 100, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 100% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 23 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 77% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Ambac's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 100 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation based on Ambac's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Ambac, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more


VALUE METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE

Last update of Value Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Ambac; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.


Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), Ambac shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Ambac. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 53, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 19% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 21 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 79% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 19 and Stock Returns with a rank of 9 are also low (below 91% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Ambac is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH

Last update of Growth Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Ambac.


Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), the company Ambac has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ambac is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Ambac and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 86, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 86% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 8, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 92% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Ambac has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Ambac are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Ambac and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS 2021 2022 2023 2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
REFINANCING
REFINANCING
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Ambac and the more cash is available to service its debt.


Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT 2021 2022 2023 2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 21-Mar-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Ambac.
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Stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Ambac from March 21, 2024.

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