Fact based stock research
AerCap (NYSE:AER)

NL0000687663

How to read the ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

AerCap stock research in summary

aercap.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with investment alternatives), AerCap (Trading & Distribution, Ireland) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of AerCap are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 44 (worse than 56% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 43), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 22), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on AerCap's financial characteristics. As the company AerCap's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 44), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 43), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 22), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	44
Growth Rank	43
Safety Rank	22
Combined Rank	22

Country	Ireland
Industry	Trading & Distribution
Index
Size class	X-Large

25-Apr-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: AerCap

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	68	63	44	44
GROWTH
GROWTH	17	100	46	43
SAFETY
SAFETY	1	22	22	22
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	65	52	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	91	46	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 25-Apr-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Dec-2023. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better AerCap is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	68	63	44	44
GROWTH
GROWTH	17	100	46	43
SAFETY
SAFETY	1	22	22	22
COMBINED
COMBINED	1	22	22	22

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of AerCap the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), AerCap shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for AerCap. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 74 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 74% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning AerCap's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 85, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 85% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 75% of alternatives (only 25% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 44, is a hold recommendation based on AerCap's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	68	49	31	25
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	80	87	75	74
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	77	81	77	85
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	68	63	44	44

Last update of Value Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of AerCap; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), AerCap shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for AerCap. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 84% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 49, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 17. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 83% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 94, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 94% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for AerCap, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	7	92	13	16
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	100	57	17
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	82	42	49
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	79	83	73	94
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	17	100	46	43

Last update of Growth Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of AerCap.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 22 (better than 22% compared with alternatives), the company AerCap has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of AerCap is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for AerCap and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 68, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 68% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 13, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 87% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 22, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with alternatives), AerCap has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for AerCap are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with AerCap and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	2	6	10	13
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	68	68	68	68
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	3	27	24	22
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	1	22	22	22

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of AerCap and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	73	81	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	94	36	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	60	92	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	2	5	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	65	52	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 25-Apr-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for AerCap.
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