Adecco: On Both Sides of the AI Wave

Adecco: On Both Sides of the AI Wave

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Cons

On May 13, Adecco reported first-quarter results that included genuine progress: a fourth consecutive quarter of organic growth, market share gains against its two largest global competitors, and a marked improvement in profitability. A modest decline in gross margin, combined with a cautious outlook for the following quarter, was enough to unsettle investors. Shares declined nearly 14% that day and touched CHF 14.54 within days, the lowest level in the company's history as a listed business.

For a staffing company operating in a labor market that had itself cooled, the reaction reflected a broader unease that goes beyond one quarter's numbers. On the surface, putting money into human recruitment while artificial intelligence reshapes entire job categories sounds like betting against the trend rather than with it. In practice, the opposite has been closer to true. Adecco has been rolling out its own agentic AI tools across its digital platform, speeding up how quickly roles get filled and how candidates get matched. At the same time, the same AI wave that is automating some roles is also making others obsolete faster than most companies can plan for on their own, and that disruption is exactly what drives demand for LHH, the group's career transition and coaching business. Companies restructuring around AI still need someone to help redeploy the people whose jobs have changed, and that side of Adecco's business has been growing quickly. The group isn't fighting the AI wave. It's positioned on both sides of it.

That view began to shift in June, as sell-side sentiment, which had spent much of the year moving in the opposite direction, started to turn. A series of upgrades and higher price targets followed over the next several weeks, echoing what our own Value and 360° View ranks had been indicating throughout: a single quarter of margin pressure did not amount to a structural decline, and the underlying trends remained intact.

The market responded. Adecco's shares advanced steadily through July, rising more than 50% from the May low, including a single-day gain of over 8%. It stands as one of the more pronounced reversals among Swiss equities this year, moving from an all-time low to one of the exchange's stronger performers within a matter of weeks.

Geographically, the business looks more balanced than the swings in its share price might suggest. Adecco now organizes itself into four main units, Adecco France, Adecco EMEA excluding France (38% of group revenue), Adecco Americas, and Adecco APAC, and the divergence between them has been wide. France and parts of northern Europe have been the weak spots, weighed down by soft demand in retail, manufacturing, and logistics, while the Americas and Asia Pacific have carried the group, with the Americas posting double-digit growth in several recent quarters and APAC gaining steadily in Japan and India. That spread across regions is exactly the kind of diversification that keeps a single soft market from sinking the whole group.

The recovery has not yet fully caught up with the underlying business, which is exactly the kind of gap the Obermatt 360° View is built to catch. It is this gap, between what the business was actually delivering and how the market was pricing it, that earns Adecco its place in the OMSP1 this month.

Adecco replaces VZ Holding, the Swiss wealth advisory firm, which leaves the index following a strong operating year of its own. VZ's business continued to grow, but its share price had already reflected more optimism than the market was prepared to sustain.

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